Methane is four times more sensitive to global warming than previously thought, a new study shows. The result helps to explain the rapid growth in methane in recent years and suggests that, if left unchecked, methane related warming will escalate in the decades to come.

The growth of this greenhouse gas – which over a 20 year timespan is more than 80 times as potent than carbon dioxide – had been slowing since the turn of the millennium but since 2007 has undergone a rapid rise, with measurements from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recording it passing 1,900 parts a billion last year, nearly triple pre-industrial levels.

“What has been particularly puzzling has been the fact that methane emissions have been increasing at even greater rates in the last two years, despite the global pandemic, when anthropogenic sources were assumed to be less significant,” said Simon Redfern, an earth scientist at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

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Air pollution has got far worse in 46 future megacities in tropical Africa, Asia and the Middle East, the study reveals. The deterioration in air quality has led to 180,000 extra deaths due to the combination of city expansion and worsening air pollution between 2005 and 2018.

Agricultural burning from the areas around the cities is one of the main causes. But the deterioration is driven mostly by new sources such as fertiliser use in nearby farms and increased transport and industry. Problems with waste burning, including the burning of plastics, are widespread too. Cities in India are also being affected by new coal power stations that are being built in the country.

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The policies currently in place to tackle the climate crisis around the world will lead to “catastrophic” climate breakdown, as governments have failed to take the actions needed to fulfil their promises, three former UN climate leaders have warned.

There is a stark gap between what governments have promised to do to protect the climate, and the measures and policies needed to achieve the targets. At the Cop26 summit last November, countries agreed to bring forward plans to limit global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – the limit of safety, according to scientists. They have so far submitted pledges that would limit temperatures to under 2C.

But the policies and measures passed and implemented by governments would lead to far greater temperature rises, of at least 2.7C, well beyond the threshold of relative safety, and potentially as much as 3.6C. That would have “catastrophic” impacts, in the form of extreme weather, sea-level rises and irreversible changes to the global climate.

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Fossil fuel companies have access to an obscure legal tool that could jeopardize worldwide efforts to protect the climate, and they’re starting to use it. The result could cost countries that press ahead with those efforts billions of dollars.

The treaties allow investors to sue governments for compensation in a process called investor-state dispute settlement, or ISDS. In short, investors could use ISDS clauses to demand compensation in response to government actions to limit fossil fuels, such as canceling pipelines and denying drilling permits. For example, TC Energy, a Canadian company, is currently seeking more than US$15 billion over U.S. President Joe Biden’s cancellation of the Keystone XL Pipeline.

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The billowing black smoke that has cloaked the US Pacific north-west during wildfire disasters in past years has caused atmospheric carbon monoxide levels to spike, with the contaminants offsetting recent reductions in emissions, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research have found.

As the American west faces increasing threats from big blazes that are fueled by a climate that’s growing warmer and drier, researchers have documented the impact of smoke on public health. But scientists are increasingly finding that the fires may be part of a feedback loop that could accelerate the change in conditions and that health impacts officials have long warned would worsen with climate crisis, may in fact already be here.

“Our research contributes to the growing body of research that shows that fires – in particular Pacific north-west region fires – are becoming more important for North American air quality” said Dr Rebecca Buchholz, a project scientist at National Center for Atmospheric Research.

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